A Second Look Rotating Header Image

Mark Zandi

A Second Look: Economy Shrinks In 4Q At 3.8 Percent Pace

via Economy Shrinks In 4Q At 3.8 Percent Pace.

WASHINGTON — The economy shrank at a 3.8 percent pace at the end of 2008…

Although the initial result was better than economists expected, the figure is likely to be revised even lower…

“The downturn is intensifying. The fourth quarter is worse than it looks,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com.

On Wall Street, stocks dipped. The Dow Jones industrial average slid more than 105 points in midday trading, and broader indexes also fell.

When inventories are stripped out, the economy would have contracted at a 5.1 percent pace in the fourth quarter, closer to the 5.4 percent drop that economists expected. Businesses couldn’t cut production fast enough in response to waning customer demand and got stuck with excess inventories, economists explained.

The Dow Jones industrial average slid more than 105 points in midday trading..

The fourth quarter was by far the weakest three-month period in 2008…

A massive pullback by consumers played a prominent role in the economy’s worsening backslide. They are cutting back on spending as jobs disappear and major investments _ homes, stocks, retirement accounts _ tank in value. Businesses are retrenching, too, as profits shrivel and demand wanes from customers in the U.S. and overseas.

Spending on durables plunged at rate of 22.4 percent, the most since early 1987.

A 7.1 percent annualized cutback in spending on “nondurables,” such as food and clothing was the deepest since the end of 1950.

Big cutbacks by homebuilders _ reeling from the collapsed housing market… Homebuilders slashed spending at a 23.6 percent pace, even deeper than the 16 percent annualized cut in the prior three months.

Spending by businesses on equipment and software dropped at a whopping 27.8 percent annualized pace in the fourth quarter, the most since early 1958.

Exports plunged at a rate of 19.7 percent in the fourth quarter…

The report provided clear evidence of the economy’s rapid deterioration as the housing, credit and financial crises _ the worst since the 1930s…

For all of 2008, the economy grew by just 1.3 percent.

The title of the article should have been Economy STINKS in 4Q At 3.8 Percent Pace. And what are we doing about all this bad news?

To jolt life back into the economy, Obama and Congress are racing to enact a multi billion-dollar package…

That is not entirely true. The Obama and the Democrats are racing to enact a multi-billion dollar package, the Republicans are coming up with every excuse they can think of to obstruct the legislation. Of course their version of  the economic recovery act contains nothing but huge give-aways to the wealthy, in other words, more trickle-down and more deregulation and more of the same failed policies that got us here in the first place.

Share

A Second Look: The Return To Bushonomics

The Progress Report wrote:

The Return To Bushonomics


From: The Progress Report [progress@americanprogressaction.org]
Sent: Thursday, January 29, 2009 9:13 AM
To: tomc2322
Subject: The Return To Bushonomics
TAX CUTS ARE INEFFECTIVE STIMULUS: The underlying folly of the conservative push for an all-tax cuts approach is the simple fact that tax cuts are ineffective stimulus. Mark Zandi, a former adviser to Sen. John McCain’s (R-AZ) presidential campaign and the chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com, has argued for months that the “fiscal bang for the buck” of tax cuts is significantly inferior to spending increases. According to Zandi’s research, a corporate tax cut delivers $0.30 in real GDP growth for every $1 invested. In comparison, infrastructure spending delivers $1.59 in GDP for every $1 spent. Zandi isn’t alone in this belief: the Congressional Budget Office “deemed last year that corporate tax cuts are ‘not a particularly cost-effective method of stimulating business spending.’” Despite these economic facts, conservatives like Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) continue promoting corporate tax cuts as the solution. “If we could lower the corporate tax rate, that would be one of the best things that we could do to make American business more competitive in the world and actually help stimulate the economy,”Ensign claimed this week.

The corporations don’t need more tax breaks, they need sales. Let me explain how this works: The government gets new funding for grounds improvement around the Capitol Mall. Next, the CIVILIAN contractor performing the maintenance gets notified of the increase in demand by the National Park Service. Next, the CIVILIAN contractor immediately ORDERS the necessary TOOLS, SUPPLIES, and whatever various and sundry RESOURCES it may need to complete the work. Next, the grounds-keeping company immediately HIRES the NEW EMPLOYEES it needs to fulfill the contractual obligations. Next, the NEW EMPLOYEES who now have JOBS start spending their new PAYCHECKS on stuff like RENT, CLOTHES, FOOD, GASOLINE, TAXES, and maybe even a NEW CAR.

Can you see how things like this might STIMULATE THE ECONOMY?

,,,,,,,,

Share
You are protected by wp-dephorm: