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February, 2010:

More, NYTimes, More!

Re:  Economic Scene – Success of Stimulus Bill Is Noteworthy as Another Is Weighed – NYTimes.com, By DAVID LEONHARDT, Published: February 16, 2010

Imagine if, one year ago, Congress had passed a stimulus bill that really worked.

Let’s say this bill had started spending money within a matter of weeks and had rapidly helped the economy. Let’s also imagine it was large enough to have had a huge impact on jobs — employing something like two million people who would otherwise be unemployed right now.

If that had happened, what would the economy look like today?

Well, it would look almost exactly as it does now. Because those nice descriptions of the stimulus that I just gave aren’t hypothetical. They are descriptions of the actual bill.

Just look at the outside evaluations of the stimulus. Perhaps the best-known economic research firms are IHS Global Insight, Macroeconomic Advisers and Moody’s Economy.com. They all estimate that the bill has added 1.6 million to 1.8 million jobs so far and that its ultimate impact will be roughly 2.5 million jobs. The Congressional Budget Office, an independent agency, considers these estimates to be conservative.

Instead of the constant drone of Obama bashing from the right and the left we finally have a paper that is brave enough to publish the truth. Too many times the media is hesitant to support President Obama. It doesn’t sell many papers. Rather, they would publish pieces by Krugman and Reich slamming Obama from the left because supporting Obama in this time of the radicalization of the right with a friendly word or two frankly just doesn’t have that cutting edge that sells. Both of them find avenues of fact to support their populist rants.

Finally seeing something that actually helps the predicament we all face sure is a breath of fresh air. The media could do much to help our nation’s economic situation by accentuating the positive.

Adding to that thought, the author has done research into why many Americans think the stimulus isn’t working, and then offers a solid debunking of it.

Speaking of debunking the falsehoods out there about the stimulus, this great article has some cool graphics that show in pictures what cannot be explained in so many words. But first, something from my email bag that shows at a glance how the Obama administration has plugged the dike on job losses. I have heard this called “the bikini graph”:

Learn more about the stimulus and the road to recovery

An interesting point here is that the Bush Administration finished with a net loss of jobs over the entire eight years he was in office. He bragged so much about his job creation numbers. Nowadays, with all the revisionism from Bush and his cronies out there you don’t hear a peep from them bragging about his job numbers.

Obama’s stimulus has worked. See for yourself:

I applaud the New York Times. More time and effort should be devoted to spreading the word of the positive changes in our economy. It would do much to smooth over the prickly fear and hatred oozing from the radical right.

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The War on the Middle Class, Part 1

Re:  The Economic Elite Vs. The People of the United States of America – Part I | Amped Status, By David DeGraw, AmpedStatus Report, Monday, February 15th, 2010

From the author, David DeGraw:

Current statistical societal indicators clearly demonstrate that a strategic attack has been launched and an analysis of current governmental policies prove that conditions for 99% of Americans will continue to deteriorate. The Economic Elite have engineered a financial coup and have brought war to our doorstep. . . and make no mistake, they have launched a war to eliminate the US middle class.

Since Reagan, the right wing has maneuvered laws and rules in order to lessen the impact of labor unions by brining down the cost of labor through NAFTA and other agreements that allow cheap foreign labor to compete directly with the US labor force. They have allowed higher education costs to skyrocket in order to provide the cheapest labor force possible and keep the poor out of higher paying professions. The right wing has pushed for the privatization of our schools, the privatization of Social Security, and the privatization of Medicare in order to pull major safety nets out from under the middle class. If you don’t believe there is a war on the middle class, then I invite you to read on.

This is an article published in Amped Status, and it is the first of a six part series.

I: Casualties of Economic Terrorism, Surveying the Damage

The devastating numbers across-the-board on the economic front are staggering. I’ll go through some of them here, many we have already become all too familiar with. We hear some of these numbers all the time, so much so that it appears as if we have already begun “to normalize the unthinkable.” You may be sick of hearing them, but behind each number is an enormous amount of individual suffering, American lives and families who are struggling worse than they ever have.

America is the richest nation in history, yet we now have the highest poverty rate in the industrialized world with an unprecedented number of Americans living in dire straits and over 50 million citizens already living in poverty.

The government has come up with clever ways to downplay all of these numbers, but we have over 50 million people who need to use food stamps to eat, and a stunning 50% of US children will use a food stamp to eat at some point in their childhood. Approximately 20,000 people are added to this total every day. In 2009, one out of five US households didn’t have enough money to buy food. In households with children, this number rose to 24%, as the hunger rate among US citizens has now reached an all time high.

We also currently have over 50 million US citizens without healthcare. 1.4 million Americans filed for bankruptcy in 2009, a 32% increase from 2008. As bankruptcies continue to skyrocket, medical bankruptcies are responsible for over 60% of them, and over 75% of the medical bankruptcies filed are from people who have healthcare insurance. We have the most expensive healthcare system in the world, we are forced to pay twice as much as other countries and the overall care we get in return ranks 37th in the world.

In total, Americans have lost $5 trillion from their pensions and savings since the economic crisis began and $13 trillion in the value of their homes. During the first full year of the crisis, workers between the age of 55 – 60, who have worked for 20 – 29 years, have lost an average of 25% off their 401k. “Personal debt has risen from 65% of income in 1980 to 125% today.” Over five million US families have already lost their homes, in total 13 million US families are expected to lose their home by 2014, with 25% of current mortgages underwater. Deutsche Bank has an even grimmer prediction: “The percentage of ‘underwater’ loans may rise to 48 percent, or 25 million homes.” Every day 10,000 US homes enter foreclosure. Statistics show that an increasing number of these people are not finding shelter elsewhere, there are now over 3 million homeless Americans, the fastest growing segment of the homeless population is single parents with children.

One place more and more Americans are finding a home is in prison. With a prison population of 2.3 million people, we now have more people incarcerated than any other nation in the world – the per capita statistics are 700 per 100,000 citizens. In comparison, China has 110 per 100,000, France has 80 per 100,000, Saudi Arabia has 45 per 100,000. The prison industry is thriving and expecting major growth over the next few years. A recent report from the Hartford Advocate titled “Incarceration Nation” revealed that “a new prison opens every week somewhere in America.”

Mass Unemployment

Buy the Book: The Economic Elite Vs. The People of the United States of AmericaThe government unemployment rate is deceptive on several levels. It doesn’t count people who are “involuntary part-time workers,” meaning workers who are working part-time but want to find full-time work. It also doesn’t count “discouraged workers,” meaning long-term unemployed people who lost hope and don’t consistently look for work. As time goes by, more and more people stop consistently looking for work and are discounted from the unemployment figure. For instance, in January, 1.1 million workers were eliminated from the unemployment total because they were “officially” labeled “discouraged workers.” So instead of the number rising, we will hear deceptive reports about unemployment leveling off.

On top of this, the Bureau of Labor Statistics recently discovered that 824,000 job losses were never accounted for due to a “modeling error” in their data. Even in their initial January data there appears to be a huge understating, with the newest report saying the economy lost 20,000 jobs. TrimTabs employment analysis, which has consistently provided more accurate data, “estimated that the U.S. economy shed 104,000 jobs in January.”

When you factor in all these uncounted workers — “involuntary part-time” and “discouraged workers” — the unemployment rate rises from 9.7% to over 20%. In total, we now have over 30 million US citizens who are unemployed or underemployed. The rarely cited “employment-participation” rate, which reveals the percentage of the population that is currently in the workforce, has now fallen to 64%.

Even based on the “official” unemployment rate, just to get back to the unemployment level of 4.6% that we had in 2007, we need to create over 10 million new jobs, and most every serious economist will tell you that these jobs are not coming back. In fact, we are still consistently shedding jobs, on just one day, January 27th, several companies announced new cuts of more than 60,000 jobs.

Due to the length of this crisis already, millions of Americans are reaching a point where the unemployment benefits that they have been surviving off of are coming to an end. More workers have already been out of work longer than at any point since statistics have been recorded, with over six million now unemployed for over six months. A record 20 million Americans qualified for unemployment insurance benefits last year, causing 27 states to run out of funds, with seven more also expected to go into the red within the next few months. In total, 40 state programs are expected to go broke.

Most economists believe that the unemployment rate will remain high for the foreseeable future. What will happen when we have millions of laid-off workers without any unemployment benefits to save them?

Working More for Less

The millions struggling to find work are just part of the story. Due to the fact that we now have a record high six people for every one job opening, companies have been able to further increase the workload on their remaining employees. They have been able to increase the amount of hours Americans are working, reduce wages and drastically cut back on benefits. Even though Americans were already the most productive workers in the world before the economic crisis, in the third quarter of 2009, average worker productivity increased by an annualized rate of 9.5%, at the same time unit labor cost decreased by 5.2%. This has led to record profits for many companies. Of the 220 companies in the S&P 500 who have reported fourth-quarter results thus far, 78% of them had “better-than-expected profits” with earnings 17% above expectations, “the highest for any quarter since Thomson Reuters began tracking data.”

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the national median wage was only $32,390 per year in 2008, and median household income fell by 3.6% while the unemployment rate was 5.8%. With the unemployment rate now at 10%, median income has been falling at a 5% rate and is expected to continue its decline. Not surprisingly, Americans’ job satisfaction level is now at an all time low.

There are also a growing number of employed people who, despite having a job, are still living in poverty. There are at least 15 million workers who now fall into this rapidly growing category. $32,390 a year is not going to get you far in today’s economy, and half of the country is making less than that. This is why many Americans are now forced to work two jobs to provide for their family to hopefully make ends meet.

A Crime Against Humanity

The mainstream news media will numb us to this horrifying reality by endlessly talking about the latest numbers, but they never piece them together to show you the whole devastating picture, and they rarely show you all the immense individual suffering behind them. This is how they “normalize the unthinkable” and make us become passive in the face of such a high casualty count.

Behind each of these numbers, is a tremendous amount of misery, the physical toll is only outdone by the severe psychological toll. Anyone who has had to put off medical care, or who couldn’t get medical care for one of their family members due to financial circumstances, can tell you about the psychological toll that is on top of the physical suffering. Anyone who has felt the stress of wondering how they were going to get their child’s next meal or their own, or the stress of not knowing how you are going to pay the mortgage, rent, electricity or heat bill, let alone the car payment, gas, phone, cable or internet bill.

There are now well over 150 million Americans who feel stress over these things on a consistent basis. Over 60% of Americans now live paycheck to paycheck.

These are all basic things that every person should be able to easily afford in a technologically advanced society such as ours. The reason why we struggle with these things is because the Economic Elite have robbed us all. This amount of suffering in the United States of America is literally a crime against humanity.

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Fixing the Filibuster Part 5: Back to the Future and the Intoxication of Power

Re:  Sen. Tom Harkin: Fixing the Filibuster, Sen. Tom Harkin, Democratic Senator from Iowa, Posted: February 12, 2010 10:39 AM

Among other bills, Republicans have filibustered legislation to provide low-income energy assistance; efforts to strengthen the Consumer Product Safety Commission to ensure our children are not exposed to unsafe toys; and efforts to ensure that women are guaranteed equal pay for equal work.

The problem is not only that Republicans are using the filibuster to kill good bills that would help working Americans. The larger problem is that the Republicans’ indiscriminate use of the filibuster has made it all but impossible to conduct everyday business in the Senate. On an almost daily basis, the Republican minority — just 41 Senators — stops bills from even coming to the floor for debate and amendment.

There are more ambitions for the right than stopping all Democratic nominations and legislation. If you think this one out to its logical conclusion, you can see why the Republicans are going all in with this “anti-Obama” meme, hoping it translates into a throw-out-the-bums wave of support in 2010 and 2012. Obstruction is power, and they are wielding it indiscriminately on any move by the Democrats to govern, then they step in front of media cameras with statements that try to blame Democrats for not attempting bipartisanship. Every perceived exclusion is amplified whether or not it really excluded the Republicans or not. They cry foul that Democrats have private meetings to try to figure out how to govern around the obstructionism. The future looks bright to them through obstruction.

They don’t have to govern, being the minority, so they sit back a lob bombs at the Democrats who are increasingly frustrated that they cannot govern without the Republicans help. What motivates the Republicans to refuse to govern is power. Like alcoholics, they abused the filibuster until they became addicted and now they are sloppy drunkards with the power it wields. The latest evidence of that is the stunt that Senator Shelby (R-AL) pulled recently by filibustering the approval of over 70 Obama nominees for various positions in his government for no other reason than to reach into the pork barrel for his home state. Why isn’t Shelby driven from office in shame?

President Obama, recently interviewed by Jim Lehrer on PBS’s NewsHour, suggested that the if the filibuster is “used prudently, then I don’t think it’s harmful for our democracy. It’s not being used prudently right now. And my hope would be that whether a senator is in the majority or is in the minority, that they’re starting to get a sense, after looking at this year, that this can’t be the way that government runs.” It is too late for prudence. You can’t tell a drunk to stop drinking. The right-wing is one toke over the line and loving it.

What they hope to achieve, of course, is gaining back the majority in Congress and winning the White House, the ultimate prize, and then propel the country back to the future – the Bush years, the days of glory for the right-wing. They will carry the plan of obstruction out to its end by campaigning on the fact that Democrats couldn’t pass needed legislation because of their failure at bipartisanship.

It is imperative that a Bush-like power mad figure stay out of the White House. That will only lead to more economic ruin and more wars. It is time to do something to stop the right-wing plan to paint Democrats as fools and then highjack the government again.

Senator Harkin has introduced and bill, but it will not get passed. Harkin needs 67 votes to change the Senate rules and he will not even get 60, or 50 for that matter. Something needs to be done now, something that fights fire with fire.

Currently, it takes 60 votes in the Senate to “invoke cloture” — in other words, to end debate on a legislative measure and bring it to a vote. My legislation would permit a decreasing number of Senators to invoke cloture on a given measure. On the first cloture attempt, 60 votes would be required. But, over a period of days or weeks, the number of votes required would fall to a simple majority of 51 Senators.

…It takes 67 votes to change the Senate rules — which, I acknowledge, is a tall order. But, by introducing this bill, I want to shine a spotlight on the egregious abuse of the filibuster, and how that abuse is paralyzing our democracy and making a mockery of the concept of majority rule.

This is not a tall order. It is an impossible order. So, the “nuclear option” must be utilized by the Democrats to pass the good legislation for the people, like finance reform, the Consumer Protection Agency, health reform, and many others. This is done by a simple point of order on the Senate floor to declare the filibuster for any particular bill unconstitutional on the grounds of abuse of the rule and obstructionism. After that, a simple majority vote will override the filibuster. This is not in the Senate rules, but it has been done before.

 Reconciliation alone cannot get the new programs into place because the budgetary effects can be argued ad nauseum. The Republicans are using every drastic action they muster in order to discredit the President and the Democratic majority in Congress and it is high time that the Democrats used equal drastic action. It is time to move legislation forward at all costs.

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